The opportunity cost of non-action is significant. Assuming issues around 4G spectrum allocation and fibre deployments are resolved, we estimate that the direct contribution of the telecoms sector to the Nigerian economy would nearly triple within five years, driven by stronger sector capital expenditure, and accelerated broadband adoption.

Under such an upside scenario, sector growth would be up to three times higher than under a status quo model. Significantly, tax and regulatory receipts would be at least two times higher than current levels; put differently, federal and state government would generate more income from the sector by letting it thrive.

The indirect impact on the broader economy would be potentially more significant thanks to multiplier effects, putting Nigeria on a stronger pathway to build a long lasting digital economy.